Where freight depends on trucks in the US and what it means for decarbonization

Rahil Saeedi

July 2, 2026

Trucks move most of America’s freight today, and they’ll still carry the bulk of it in 2050, even as rail and marine grow their roles. We can’t wish that away, but we can change what powers those trucks, what they emit, and how they move through our cities.

Why it matters

You can’t move most urban freight to rail. Rail and marine are essential for long‑haul and gateway flows, but cities still depend on trucks for short, frequent, last‑mile deliveries, and that core pattern isn’t going away quickly.
So, for cities, the most immediate and scalable path to cleaner freight is cleaner trucks and smarter operations: electric and hydrogen vehicles, charging and fueling infrastructure, better routing and delivery times, and more freight‑efficient land use and logistics.
In many metros, neighborhoods with the heaviest truck activity and the worst air quality are also the ones with the weakest protections, tools, or investments to clean it up.

In major consumer and logistics markets where trucks carry a large share of domestic ton-miles of freight and where truck activity is projected to grow, truck focused strategies can play a central role in decarbonization.

Using Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) 5.7.1, CPCS looked at 2024 domestic freight moving to and from major metropolitan regions (metros), including New York–New Jersey–Pennsylvania, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas–Fort Worth, Houston, Atlanta, Miami, Seattle, San Francisco, Phoenix, Washington (DC–MD–VA), Denver, Detroit, Boston, St. Louis and Philadelphia. We compared those results with FAF’s mid‑range forecasts for 2050.

Key highlights:

Major U.S. metros are structurally dependent on trucks: Several large metros rely on trucks far more than the national average (about 47% in 2024). Trucks carry roughly 70% or more of domestic ton‑miles in regions such as Dallas–Fort Worth, Boston, New York, Atlanta, Washington, DC–Maryland–Virginia, and Miami.
Freight demand is expected to grow significantly by 2050, with truck ton‑miles rising in all these markets under FAF’s baseline forecast.
Many truck-intensive metros already face air quality challenges: Many of these metros overlap with US Environmental Protection Agency nonattainment or maintenance areas.
Decarbonizing urban and regional freight in these metros will depend heavily on trucking solutions: In regions where trucks dominate and continue to grow, strategies such as cleaner vehicles and supporting infrastructure are critical to reducing emissions.

The links between truck dependence, air quality, and emissions policy

Truck dependence, air quality, and emissions policy map — Source: CPCS. Estimates based on Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) 5.7.1.

This map highlights:

where trucks currently carry the largest shares of domestic freight ton‑miles,
how those shares are expected to change under FAF’s 2050 baseline forecast,
how truck‑intensive metros intersect with US Environmental Protection Agency ozone and particulate‑matter nonattainment and maintenance areas, as well as selected clean‑truck policy states.

Trucks handle a substantial and growing share of freight activity in the highlighted metros. This suggests that any effort to reduce freight‑related climate and health impacts in these regions will need to account for current and projected truck ton‑miles.

Across every metro in our analysis, trucks account for the largest share of domestic ton-miles, compared to any freight mode

America’s largest freight metros are all multimodal, but some rely more heavily on trucks than others. Several regions stand out with particularly high truck shares in 2024:

Dallas–Fort Worth: about three‑quarters of domestic ton‑miles move by truck, even after accounting for rail, pipeline and multimodal shipments.
Boston and the New York–New Jersey–Pennsylvania metro: truck shares exceed two‑thirds of domestic ton‑miles, reflecting large, dense consumer markets and regional distribution networks.
Atlanta, Washington (DC–MD–VA), and Miami: truck shares are roughly two‑thirds of domestic ton‑miles, with relatively modest rail and water contributions.

These metros are all large consumption and logistics hubs where FAF shows truck‑oriented supply chains playing an outsized role in meeting local demand.

In contrast, places like Chicago, Houston, Seattle, St. Louis and Detroit show lower truck shares because rail and water move substantial volumes. However, even in these regions trucks still carry the largest single share of domestic ton‑miles.

Truck freight will continue to grow

FAF’s baseline forecasts indicate that domestic truck ton‑miles will grow in every metro we examined between 2024 and 2050.

In Dallas–Fort Worth, truck ton‑miles will increase from roughly 94 billion in 2024 to more than 150 billion by 2050.
In New York–New Jersey–Pennsylvania, truck ton‑miles will nearly double over the same period, outpacing the growth of other modes even as rail and multimodal shipments expand.
Metro areas like Atlanta, Miami, DC–MD–VA and Phoenix will see strong truck ton‑mile growth, driven by population and economic expansion.

Even in more multimodal gateways like Chicago, Houston, Seattle, St. Louis, and Detroit, FAF shows truck ton‑miles increasing substantially by 2050 alongside growth in rail, water and pipeline. The baseline picture is not one where trucks are replaced, but one where they carry even more freight in absolute terms.

Many truck-intensive freight metros face air quality challenges, but not all have truck-emissions policies in place

When we overlay truck ton‑mile patterns with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s ozone and particulate‑matter nonattainment and maintenance areas, a clear pattern emerges: many of the most truck‑intensive freight metros are located in regions that already face air‑quality challenges.

Several of these metros sit in states that have adopted or are moving toward stronger truck‑emissions policies, such as California’s Advanced Clean Trucks and Heavy‑Duty Low‑NOx regulations. These states are beginning to deploy zero emission delivery trucks, low nitrogen oxide (low Nox) engines, and supporting fueling and charging infrastructure as part of broader climate and air quality strategies.

Other metros with similar or higher truck shares, and similar forecast growth, do not yet have comparable policies.

What this implies for freight decarbonization

Metros with high truck shares and existing or upcoming clean‑truck policies are beginning to move in the right direction. In regions like Los Angeles, New York–New Jersey, Houston and the DC–Maryland–Virginia area, public agencies and fleets are beginning to test zero‑emission delivery trucks, plan for charging and hydrogen infrastructure, update fleet standards and explore operational strategies such as off‑peak deliveries and freight‑efficient land use.

For metros with similarly high truck shares but fewer or no air quality policies, the FAF data and 2050 forecasts suggest a call to action: if truck ton‑miles are already above the national average share and are expected to grow, then planning for cleaner trucks and smarter freight operations needs to become a core part of their climate and air‑quality agenda.

About the Freight Analysis Framework (FAF 5.7.1)

The Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) is the U.S. government’s primary dataset for understanding how freight moves across the national transportation system. It provides a consistent picture of what goods move, where they move, by which modes, and in what quantities for all states, major metropolitan areas, and key international gateways.

FAF is produced through a partnership between the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), with data development and modeling led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). FAF version 5 (including release 5.7.1) builds on the 2017 Commodity Flow Survey (CFS), Census Bureau international trade data, and sector‑specific inputs from agriculture, extraction, utilities, construction, services, and other industries.

FAF provides modeled estimates of freight flows rather than a census of individual shipments. For each FAF region pair (states and major metros), commodity, and mode, FAF reports:

Weight, in thousands of tons.
Value, in millions of constant 2017 dollars.
Activity, in millions of ton‑miles, a standard physical measure of freight output.

The database covers 42 commodity groups and all major freight modes, including truck, rail, water, air, pipeline, and multimodal/mail. FAF5 also provides long‑range forecasts at five‑year intervals through 2050 under multiple economic growth scenarios.

About CPCS

CPCS is a global infrastructure advisory firm with deep expertise across freight and logistics systems. With experience spanning state freight plans, truck parking, corridor studies, and supply chain analysis, CPCS brings a proven track record of helping clients improve efficiency, resilience, and economic competitiveness across U.S. freight systems.

CPCS: Better infrastructure solutions. Better lives.